2016-04-26

Can't Hide The Decline Anymore: Liaoning GDP Negative 1.3 pc in Q1

Liaoning can no longer hides its recession with adjustments to GDP (see China Northeast in Recession, Unadjusted Nominal GDP Declines), it reported a 1.3 percent contraction in the first quarter.

iFeng: 31省份一季度GDP增速出炉 辽宁首现负增长(表)
The Western media focused on the fact that 24 provinces beat the national growth rate, but the Chinese media notices something else: GDP is lower in every province except Qinghai and Hainan.
It is noteworthy that, the provinces in the first quarter GDP performance is worse than last year. From 28 provinces and cities in the first quarter GDP growth rate last year of comparison, last year's GDP growth rate of more than local only Hainan and Qinghai provinces.
Official propaganda says don't worry: China to revitalize northeast rustbelt
China will rejuvenate its northeast rustbelt region through more reforms and economic restructuring, according to a policy document released Tuesday.

State-owned enterprises (SOEs) will be restructured, private firms will receive more support and regional cooperation will drive development, according to the document jointly published by the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee and the State Council.

The region's equipment manufacturing sector will be modernized, and high-end industries, the modern service sector and modern agriculture will all be supported, it said.
Except as I noted way back in October 2014, in Liaoning Sounds Warning on Chinese Economy:
Liaoning is more exposed to the higher stages of production and therefore is one of the provinces most likely to experience a slowdown first assuming a normal contraction phase of a business cycle. We know steel and other industrial sectors have overcapacity. Problems in steel surfaced in late 2011, but wider economic growth was not impacted until very recently, following a steady deterioration in the market for more than 2 years and then a slowdown in real estate as well.
If you believe recessions begin at the higher stages of production and work their way through the economy or if you believe real estate is still a major growth industry for China, then Liaoning is about 12 to 18 months ahead of the rest of China.

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