No Large Scale Stimulus or Money Printing? No Need To Rush Into Housing

Li Keqiang's comments at Davos indicate home prices are unlikely to rise, since he said there would be no large scale stimulus or monetary intervention.

For developers, the current capital chain tension, and the financing environment is not good. 70% of housing prices in the debt ratio of red alert, now more than 80% asset-liability ratio of housing prices accounted for 22.54%, accounting for between 70% -80% for 20.42%, accounting for 60% -70% between the 20.4%. From the secondary market is difficult to melt into the necessary funds, and banks, trust, entrusted loans and other financial channels and Xianpinaifu. Bank benchmark lending rate is now almost impossible to give the real estate business. Trust, entrusted loan interest rates are at least 10% or more. The average profit margin of housing prices from 2013, 2014 of 11.97%, 10% fell to 9.1 percent now. Funding housing prices basically is at stake.

For housing prices, the price of course is the best way to get rid of short-term cash-strapped companies. But it depends on the needs of the various aspects of the relationship. At present, the demand is greater than the last few years really, but it is based on several factors. The most important factor is that if inflation expectations are too high, the currency is too large, monetary policy is too loose, the stock market rises and falls is very unstable, so private capital will accelerate into the property market.

Recently, Premier Li Keqiang at the Davos forum, said: "We haven't printed moeny, did not engage in large-scale stimulus." So there is no need to rush home buyers get into the property market. Wait a moment, prices might fall.

iFeng: 房价会不会涨价？ 从总理讲话中可分析走势