We already have a very clear signal that economic activity, or activity in general, is picking up due to lower energy prices. First, here's gasoline demand through the end of October:
Gasoline sales were down 2.7% in December, but gasoline prices are down 33% from the end of October.
Even if you don't buy the demand story, there's this:
“Decreased crude oil prices will keep gasoline prices low in 2015 and save the average U.S. household about $750,” EIA Administrator Adam Sieminski said in an e-mailed statement. “Gasoline prices have already fallen for 15 weeks in a row, which matches the record streak of price declines set at the end of 2008.”
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