2015-01-17

Chinese Home Price Decline Decelerates Again in December

New home prices fell 0.4% in December, down from 0.56% in November and 0.76% in October. Year-on-year prices are now down an average of 4.3%. New home prices are down in all but 2 of the 70 cities yoy.

First tier cities did slightly better in December than the national average, but there wasn't a large divergence in the prices. The rebound thus far has been in sales growth of both homes and land. Looking back further in time, especially back to 2010, it is clear the first-tier cities have held up much better on average.

Since 2010, prices are up only 8.7% nationally.

March: 4 cities saw declines in price mom, 10 cities were flat, 56 were up.
April: 8 cities saw declines in price mom, 18 cities were flat, 44 were up.
May: 35 cities saw declines in price mom, 20 cities were flat, 15 were up.
June: 55 cities saw declines in price mom, 7 cities were flat, 8 were up.
July: 64 cities saw declines in price mom, 4 cities were flat, 2 were up.
August: 68 cities saw declines in price mom, 1 city was flat, 1 was up.
September: 69 cities saw declines in price mom, 1 city was flat, 0 were up.
October: 69 cities saw declines in price mom, 1 city was flat, 0 were up.
November: 67 cities saw declines in price mom, 3 cities were flat, 0 were up.
December: 65 cities saw declines in price mom, 4 cities were flat, 1 was up.

As in November, existing home prices were much stronger than new home prices. The decline in December shrank to 0.32%. Prices are down only 3.9% yoy. Since 2010, existing homes have only risen an average of 2.7%. Of the 70 cities tracked by the National Bureau of Statistics, 24 have existing homes prices below 2010 levels.

70 city new home price changes by market segment: below 90 sqm prices fell 0.40% mom; 90-144 sqm prices fell 0.41%; above 144 sqm prices fell 0.49%. The trend is the same for yoy and prices gains since 2010, with large homes only up an average of 6.7% since 2010 versus 10.9% for houses smaller than 90 sqm.

70 city existing home price changes by market segment: below 90 sqm prices fell 0.31% mom; 90-144 sqm prices fell 0.33%; above 144 sqm prices fell 0.38%. Notably, existing homes larger than 144 sqm are only up 0.1% on average since 2010.

Full report: 2014年12月份70个大中城市住宅销售价格变动情况

Below is the data from the housing report, adjusted to show the percent change. List is sorted by gain since 2010.


City mom change yoy change Since 2010
Xiamen -0.5 2.1 26.4
Shenzhen 1.2 -1.3 23.5
Guangzhou -0.2 -4.7 22.0
Zhengzhou 0.0 0.2 20.2
Urumqi -0.5 -4.0 19.1
Beijing -0.2 -2.7 17.7
Xining -0.3 -2.1 17.6
Shijiazhuang -0.1 -3.2 15.9
Shanghai -0.3 -3.7 15.8
Changsha -0.7 -6.8 13.7
Fuzhou -0.2 -5.3 12.8
Lanzhou -0.2 -3.0 12.5
Nanchang -0.3 -5.1 11.9
Xi'an -0.5 -3.4 11.7
Zhangjiang -0.9 -5.0 11.7
Yueyang -0.3 -2.1 11.6
Luoyang -0.7 -4.0 11.3
Wuhan 0.0 -4.0 11.2
Hefei -0.1 -1.7 10.9
Yinchuan -0.2 -3.0 10.8
Taiyuan -0.4 -3.7 10.5
Shenyang -0.9 -7.8 10.5
Nanjing -0.1 -2.1 10.5
Dandong -0.6 -6.0 10.5
Guiyang -0.4 -2.7 10.4
Mudanjiang -0.6 -2.7 10.3
Dalian -1.0 -6.4 10.2
Jilin -0.2 -4.0 10.2
Pingdingshan -0.5 -3.7 10.0
Guilin -0.8 -7.1 10.0
Harbin -0.4 -4.2 9.8
Zunyi -0.1 -3.0 9.8
Qinhuangdao -0.2 -4.6 9.7
Jining -0.3 -3.5 9.7
Jinzhou -0.5 -5.9 9.5
Xiangyang -0.4 -4.9 9.5
Kunming -0.5 -3.8 9.4
Yichang -0.6 -5.0 9.4
Changchun -0.5 -3.7 9.0
Hohhot -0.9 -5.1 8.9
Changde -0.2 -3.1 8.7
Tianjin -0.2 -3.0 8.6
Xuzhou -0.2 -4.2 8.6
Jinan -0.3 -4.0 8.5
Huizhou -0.6 -5.2 8.1
Chongqing -0.3 -5.2 8.0
Chengdu -0.2 -4.6 8.0
Ganzhou 0.0 -5.5 8.0
Nanning -0.5 -4.3 7.2
Beihai -0.1 -4.0 7.1
Baotou -0.5 -5.6 6.8
Yantai -0.7 -4.9 6.6
Nanchong -0.5 -5.0 6.4
Yangzhou -0.3 -4.8 5.9
Luzhou -1.3 -6.6 5.6
Shaoguan -0.6 -7.6 5.3
Jiujiang -0.3 -4.3 5.1
Dali -0.6 -3.1 3.7
Anqing -0.5 -5.6 3.2
Qingdao -0.9 -6.2 3.0
Wuxi -0.2 -4.0 2.7
Bengbu -0.4 -5.6 2.3
Sanya -0.7 -4.0 2.0
Quanzhou -0.5 -5.7 1.9
Tangshan 0.0 -3.1 0.1
Jinhua -0.4 -4.9 -1.1
Haikou -0.7 -4.6 -1.2
Ningbo -0.4 -5.3 -5.4
Hangzhou -0.3 -9.9 -7.7
Wenzhou -0.4 -4.4 -22.5

No comments:

Post a Comment