2014-08-13

First Tier Housing Markets in Weak Balance, Some Beijing Properties Cut 20%

From iFeng. Beijing is quietly seeing price cuts of 5% to 10%, with some as large as 20%. Developers are also disguising price cuts via free area, paid property management fees, and 10% down payments. Centaline said that when affordable housing is removed, prices fell in July, though including it, sales hit a 3-month high in July. Existing home sales hit a 4-month peak in July, but prices were down slightly.

Shanghai saw sales down 9.1% yoy, but Centaline said sales were up strongly at the end of the month. Guangzhou and Shenzhen saw weak sales in July.

一线城市楼市维持“弱平衡” 北京房价罕见下跌20%
Recently some cities property policy fine-tuning, but the cities have not yet purchased a limited relaxation of the sign. China Securities Journal reporter learned that Beijing, Shanghai volume rebounded slightly, Guangzhou, Shenzhen housing prices have dropped, developers around the main price for the amount of sales strategy, buyers will just be part of the population has been restored.

Industry sources, the current Beijing has begun to cut prices of some real estate projects. It is reported that most of the decline in real estate sales between 5% -10%, some real estate price cut even close to 20%. This decline in recent years in Beijing property market is rare.

Beijing housing prices fell Shanghai traded the "tail"

Under the price cuts, some demand for the release of the status of various projects, the Beijing property market finally rebounded slightly since July. Data from the Beijing Municipal Construction Committee shows that the impact from the housing centralized transaction, in July this year, Beijing signed new residential units for a total 6200 units, up 21.5 percent, as the high point of the last 3 months. According to Centaline data, if removed from the housing element, July Beijing new home average price of 24,979 yuan contract / square meter, the chain fell.

Second-hand housing , the July 8059 Beijing signed second-hand housing units, up 23 percent, the highest recent four-month high. Same period, the Beijing second-hand housing transaction price of 28,900 yuan / square meter, compared with June's 29,200 yuan / square meter has been dropped.

The industry believes that the recent price change has become the main theme of the Beijing property market. Since August, the Beijing property market turnover rebound trend, Nationwide, which continued to pick up rare.

In addition to the direct price adjustments developers outside Beijing also emerged some disguised price concessions, including the purchase of sending area, buyers send property costs, "one percent down payment," and so on. In the case of high credit threshold, to some extent, reduce the actual cost of buyers.

July's Shanghai property market and recession, but the end appeared carryover market. July Shanghai 701,000 square meters of new residential turnover, down 1.8% year on year decrease of 9.1%. However by the end of July, Shanghai new home transactions have emerged the "tail" market. Shanghai Centaline statistics, Shanghai in July last week closing an area of ​​202,000 square meters, up 49.5 percent, to about 140,000 square meters of volume compared with July last few weeks every week, there are more substantial upgrade.

Item total price in July in Shanghai before closing an area of ​​the top three are not high, priced below 20,000 yuan basic / square meter. Some items appear in the market price behavior, in order to ensure that the sale price for the amount of tasks to complete. By region, sales in July mainly in real estate better Nanhui, Fengxian, Songjiang outer area. From the supply point of view, just to be real estate began to force, to supply main, although the total amount of the opening 6 percent lower than the previous, but just need products accounted for 85 percent, a new high for the past four months.

Insiders said that although the July 18 Shanghai has reiterated the strict implementation of restriction policy does not relax, but for buyers, speculation on the future direction of policy had expected prices to rise, prompting some consumers gradually out of the sidelines. China Securities Journal reporter interviewed found that many developers admitted to wait "restriction relaxation" was opened, one worried about the recent opening of the lack of market confidence, the second is for the second half of the Shanghai property market regulation policy easing have expectations.

Shanghai Centaline research director Song Yong said the property was originally the hot summer season, the enthusiasm of buyers showings generally will be less. But because home buyers just need to be more sensitive to price, so if prices have to rise, "signal", the first action must be some just need buyers.

Guangzhou, Shenzhen, cold wind blowing continues to decline

Since July, the Guangzhou property market continued the decline in the first half. Guangzhou Land and Housing Bureau released data show that in July the city of Guangzhou net signed 4465 new residential units, ring infer price or trading volume fell 28.89 percent year on year, a record low this year. Among them, the city of Guangzhou in July the average price of new residential network to sign up to 15,133 yuan / square meter, up 8.76 percent year on year.

Second-hand housing, the Central Plains real estate transaction data show that in July of second-hand housing turnover Guangzhou continue to remain low, Trades consecutive months of decline, a drop of 33.6 percent last month, while the city's second-hand housing transaction price of 24,294 yuan / square m, a slight decrease of 0.5% from last month.

Hopefluent Real Estate Research Center predicted that due to supply and demand in Guangzhou downtown area with the surrounding area is not the same, all regions Guangzhou downward price range are not the same. Nansha Islands and other remote areas due to oversupply, price declines ahead, Center City due to less supply, prices fell by a relatively small space.

Shenzhen market strong sentiment affects the developers push plate enthusiasm. Shenzhen Centaline data show that Shenzhen July push plate less than 2,000 units, a decline of 25%. In terms of turnover, in July the city's area is 226,500 square meters of transactions, a decline of 3%, Transacted 2425 sets, down three sets, fell 28.6 percent year on year. China Securities Journal reporter noted that following the April market rebound, Shenzhen consecutive three month decline in volume occurs.

Transaction prices continue to decline also declared the property has not yet warmed up. Statistics show that these institutions, in July, Shenzhen, the average transaction price of new commodity housing 22,563 yuan / square meter, down 3.75 percent, up marginally by 0.13%. From the price trend, the average transaction price reached a peak in May, June and July there were lower than the previous.

Second-hand housing market is also less than ideal. Data Shenzhen Urban Planning and Land Resources Committee released in July Shenzhen transfer number 4062 secondary residential units, a slight increase of 1.35 percent, up sharply down 45.22%. This month despite a slight increase in volume from the previous month, but far less than a year ago. In terms of price, July Shenzhen secondary residential market transaction price is 30,813 yuan / square meter, essentially flat with the previous month. However, after taking into account the turnover of structural factors, the city's second-hand housing transaction price actually fell slightly.

Shenzhen local agency analysts believe that the property market is difficult to have a big short-term policy changes, market sentiment has not been substantially eased, still tight credit policy, the developer does not appear significantly reduced pricing, resulting in the property market remains in the doldrums.

However, with the traditional sales season, "Golden September and Silver October," approaching, entering August developers pushed enthusiasm is expected to activate. Agency data show that in July Shenzhen sale permit has 13 projects, supply of copy number up to 5165 units, but only 10 actual final opening of the project, up for sale to reduce the number of sets to 1943 sets. The industry is expected in August in Shenzhen new push plate number of the project is expected to increase to 18.

Game wavering market is expected to intensify

Shanghai E-House Real Estate Institute released "July typical city new commercial housing turnover Report" said that in just the past seven months, the national 30 typical urban area of ​​newly built commercial housing turnover growth of 10.5%, down 14.0%. 30 cities, 18 cities have a volume appeared sequential growth, which led to widespread concern in the industry.

However, in July four first-tier cities new residential area of ​​1.96 million square meters turnover, a decrease of 9.4%, down 26.5%. So far, the first-tier cities to maintain the momentum fell for nine consecutive months.

"Recently, some local governments to adjust the property market policies. Many housing enterprises to actively follow up, accelerate the rhythm of the push plate and promotional efforts to increase prices." Easy Home Real Estate Institute researcher Yan Yuejin said that the emergence of plus or minus 10% of the chain fluctuations, not yet indicating that the market has recovered. August market transactions will not be a big change, or with the July flat. The transaction is expected in September than in August significant rebound.

Director of the Center for Financial Research and Development Institute, Fudan Sun Lijian that some cities restriction that deregulation failed to eliminate people on the representation of urban housing bearish pessimism. But with the steady growth of government policy orientation increasingly uncertain, and constantly under the influence of overweight "micro-stimulus", the regional economic growth trends gradually getting better, which is the future of the country will play a stabilizing effect on the property market.

Centaline chief analyst Zhang Dawei that the current Beijing has begun to cut prices of some items, and received market acceptance. It is reported that most of the price decline projects between 5% -10%, while the price cut is a small part of the project or even close to 20% level. This is very rare in recent years, the Beijing property market.

Dawei noted that the current market expectations still wavering, subtle changes in the tone of future policy, may bring no small impact on the market. Therefore, the current market is maintaining a "weak balance", but this balance can easily be broken by policies or market trends.

Blissful estate Lu Qilin, research director, said that with the recent second and third tier cities in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have relaxed the restriction, Shanghai has become a "policy silos." Some cities in the purchase deregulation may enable developers to produce certain psychological changes, saying that "policy is already coming to an end." In addition, the purchase of second and third tier cities in favor of deregulation objective Developers capital returns, these factors or have some negative impact on the Shanghai real estate markdowns, thereby affecting the property market in the second half.

Shenzhen real estate analysts believe that, compared to the purchase of easing the impact of credit policies on the market becomes more apparent. Future of the property market could pick up, mainly depends on whether the credit just to be able to continue to increase its efforts to support the population, and the developers will make concessions on price. Overall, the possibility of greater stabilization of the property market dip.

Insiders said that the country most cities, the fundamentals of the current first-tier cities property market is still "short supply", with the price adjustment, the game both supply and demand situation is gradually changing, the demand will continue to be released. Due to the high cost of land tier cities, prices fell most of the projects will not exceed 20%. Affected by this, the next tier cities property market continues to plumb the average transaction price of converting a space.

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