2014-07-04

Jinan 3 Months and No Land Sales

Even though prices haven't tumbled in Jinan, land sales have ground to a halt. In Q1, Jinan residential real estate investment grew at 4.3%, down from 35.4% a year earlier.

济南松绑限购冲动背后:土地连续三月零成交
Shandong Jinan, the capital city of greatest risk is not real estate, but suddenly came the purchase of deregulation of the message. July 2, Jinan City Construction Committee responded, about the purchase of adjustment policies being studied, to be approved by the Ministry of Housing.

21st Century Business Herald reporter survey, rumors about the cancellation of the purchase in Jinan, which lasted a long time, since March this year after two sessions of the State Council to convey the intention of the classification regulation, Jinan City to spread the purchase will be canceled. Immediately after entering the second half, it seems increasingly clear that the policy path.

Jinan Many real estate industry sources said, which in recent months, especially since the second quarter of housing, land turnover in the doldrums about. Especially in land transactions, according to the 21st Century Business Herald reporter inquiries, Jinan land market has traded for three consecutive months and is likely to seriously affect the Jinan year's budget revenues.

Latest data show that in June, an official with the real estate market throughout the land market has entered a downward turn cold period. "Upset bid" has almost become the recent portrayal of the land market, which has become a lot of second and third tier cities including Jinan, including the power to relax the restriction.

In addition, the first quarter of this year, Jinan City, the economic situation analysis report shows that a quarter of real estate development and investment growth of 17.5%, down 3.8 percentage points year on year growth, residential growth of 4.3%, down 31.1 percentage points. New construction area declined by 25.5%, decreased by 45.5% completion area, which houses fell 34.9% and 35.6%.

"The new construction area and completion area dropped significantly, largely linked to display the developer continued funding problems which the current tightening of bank lending and loan development is closely related to so developers can aspire to relax the restriction on the demand side To fund transfusion. "an industry insider introduction.

Months of gestation purchase deregulation

Spread of the Internet "on the city's real estate purchase policy adjustments instructions "mentioned in the document," Municipal Construction Committee proposed commercial housing sales in the first half of Jinan City saw a decline and prices fall stagflation phenomenon ......, Municipal Construction Committee and City housing authority After the study recommended the lifting of restrictions within the city purchase new housing and housing stock. "

July 2, Jinan Urban Construction Committee, responded that "(the purchase of whether to adjust) the city is now being studied, have reported that the Ministry of Housing for approval."

A local developer told the 21st Century Business Herald reporters after the purchase about whether release is still controversial, although the government departments in a month or two before the meeting deliberated, but has yet to exact intentions. Not the greatest pressure because of Jinan, the highest risk cities.

Jinan City from April 2011 to enforce the existing policy of limited options, along with significant rise in property prices weakened in August that year, prices fell for the first time mom, until June 2012.

From the beginning of July 2012, prices began a wave of Jinan ring up prices, as of March 2014, Jinan, new home prices rising for 21 months, the rate of increase gradually narrowed in recent months.

Compared with other second-tier cities within a country, whether it is the supply of new residential volume or transaction price, performance is relatively stable. Data from January to May of this year to see the first five months of pre-approved 21,929 new residential units, 2.46 million square meters, is expected to last a considerable amount of annual supply; transactions, the first five months of total net signed 16,879 sets , 1.84 million square meters, the average monthly turnover of units and area are almost the same with the previous year.

Shandong Academy of Sciences Institute of Strategic Studies, Professor Lvzhao Yi believes that the purchase of Jinan relaxed ripe. Jinan property market is relatively stable, the government will not take too drastic measures. Settled conditions by reducing the possibility of deregulation purchase is not large.

But into June, Jinan property market pressures increase. Centaline Research Department statistics show: the overall property market cooling Jinan, the first half of the total contracted residential 20,753 units, up 30,974 units over the same period in 2013 reduced by 33%. Copy number can be sold also rose by 10,000 units.

Property market downturn chain reaction

Downturn in the property market turnover, spread to the land market, which triggered financial constraints, this may be the driving force in Jinan purchase urgently want deregulation.

After the emergence of land transactions spurt early, since March Jinan land market has been relatively quiet in the second quarter or even a zero turnover.

According to Jinan January to March 2014 public budget execution analysis reports, in the first quarter, led to a significant drop in Jinan sales of commercial real estate taxes down.

Reported that part of the city due to the recent impact of a sale of real estate, banking and fund policy tightening credit policies and other factors, the real estate market see a significant increase in the atmosphere: a quarter Jinan commodity housing sales (ploidy) fell 30.98%. Affected areas of real estate tax increase of only 5.21%, lower than the 6.36 percentage point increase in the city's tax revenue.

As an important source of income funds Jinan Municipal Government, the land premium in which a large proportion, one quarter is not satisfactory. Data show that in 2014 a quarter of total turnover of commercial land in Jinan 53, an increase of 96%, including 27 residential land, an increase of 69%, which is mainly "light dip in 2013," only in January 2014 they traded land 45, mostly late 2013 launch of plots; into February and March, Trades will be substantially reduced.

At the same time, a quarter of the people's livelihood, Jinan considerable increase spending, including housing security spending 105 million yuan, an increase of 1.11 times.

It is noteworthy that, after the end of March is located North Ash Area 2 residential land transfer listed, not the whole land transfer listed in April, while the land market in May of more "silent", not only failed land transaction, land continue "odd." June is still the case.

Jinan relevant department heads this explanation, Jinan land market "lonely" and "depressed" little relationship to the land before ripening and pricing of land, after the preliminary work done, the land will have to sell the property market .

But the real estate industry are attributed to the property market downturn this chain reaction, Shandong SEIREN Jardine director, general manager, said Zhu Jiang, property sentiment doctrinal, the market volume in the first half year, the chain has shown a decline spread to the land market ; currently projects started delaying the progress of the project has been started slow market or low-cost market, the old listings are commonly used promotions, special rooms and other ways to inventory; factors affecting trading volumes, reimbursement and financing, etc., developers get to be more cautious, funds are strained.

Deputy General Manager Yang Xiaochen E-House China Jinan Company believes that the purchase of the policy or start Jinan edge region liberalized, such as Changqing, then depending on the market reaction to the gradual liberalization; Zhu Jiang the analysis, the second half may cancel the purchase of Jinan, the current government is just for the purchase of the policy is the best time to find an exit.

30 cities are expected to be canceled?

Late June, beginning from Hohhot, more substantive consideration of the city began loosening the restriction policy. Jinan is just one of the microcosm.

LaSalle Bank (quotes, interrogation) report shows that the second quarter of first-tier cities land transactions has shrunk dramatically, Beijing June Land zero turnover; Shenzhen in May after the land transaction volume, turnover bottomed out again in June, less than 200 million land premium Yuan; Guangzhou, Shanghai this month, land turnover was 2.8 billion, 2.5 billion yuan, compared with May have shrunk more than 3 percent, year on year decline reached 80%.

Easy Home in the first half data show, TOP20 city surplus land supply risks. 3496 land deal in Chongqing Articles Top traded built surface top, so sales ratio (land transfer and sales ratio) 3.7; while Weifang, Lanzhou, Nantong, Linyi let off than even up 11.4,10,6.5,5.7.

Shanghai E-House Real Estate Institute researcher Kang Ya-juan pointed out that reducing the building area of ​​land transactions and reduce the land available for some cities have a certain relationship, but the impact of cold housing market brought about by the land market is a more important factor, an official with the current land market the housing market has entered a downward turn cold period. "Upset bid" has almost become the recent portrayal of the land market, and get to the benchmark of housing prices is also becoming increasingly apparent degree of caution.

Centaline chief analyst Zhang Dawei said that many similar Hohhot city because the overall economic problems, relax property market adjustment needs very urgent purchase of the policy may be in addition to the first-tier cities and over 10 million population of the city still exists, the other cities are likely to gradually been canceled: the purchase of 30 or more is expected of the city will likely be canceled during the year.

"Hohhot property issues, so far only a simple inventory. Superimposed triple cycle is the real reason for this triple cycle refers to the economic cycle, the cycle of wealth and real estate cycles." Said Zhang Dawei, similar to the city's real estate market must be adjusted.

Zhang believes that the way the specific purchase may be canceled, the purchase of the policy combined with household registration policy adjustment, in fact, in addition to Beijing and Shanghai at present, other cities are basically settled the difficulty and the ability to match buyers, in this case, in particular, the four-tier cities, Even second-tier cities, the purchase of executive influence on the market is not that big.

Moreover, the purchase of execution from 2011 to, in fact, have the effect of decreasing the purchase of the factors affecting the market, the ratio has been less than 1 percent.

Insiders also believe that, in real terms compared with the effect of lifting the restriction greater symbolism, 2011 symbolic policy adjustments this round of market policy is the purchase, after a two-way regulation, future land supply capacity, the potential supply of housing Big cities are likely to be gradually loosening the purchase, but in 2014 the market simply is to see the credit.

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