2014-06-28

Be Quiet About Easing Buying Restrictions

Some Chinese cities know how to read between the lines, others do not. Shenyang and Hohhot publicly announced an end to buying restrictions only days and weeks after an official from the Ministry of Housing said no city has done so. They both pulled their announcement within hours. Wuxi tried a similar move and said it was all just a rumor.

住建部:限购对百姓无影响 没城市公开取消 (Ministry of Housing: Buying Restrictions Have No Effect on Average Buyers; No City Has Openly Cancelled Buying Restrictions)

Other cities have eased "buying restrictions" in ways the central government would like to see, such as easing residency requirements. Technically, these aren't the buying restrictions talked about in the press, these are more fundamental changes in residency rules. Buying restrictions mainly refer to the rules aimed at stopping investment and speculation in the housing market, which keep buyers from buying more than two homes in a given city. Haikou and Wuxi are two examples of easing residency rules.

Then there are the cities who are keeping their mouths shut about easing buying restrictions. The unwritten rule in easing buying restrictions is, don't talk about easing buying restrictions. I do not think eased restrictions will have much effect, but up to as many as 20 cities have quietly eased rules.

知情者揭楼市松绑潜规则:不能公开救市可暗中执行
Since April, including Fujian, Tongling, Shenyang, Wuxi and other cities, are caught in a save the property market, "the government leaked - Opinion Focus - reacted strongly - Government rumor" cycle.

However, Hohhot released two documents directly ripped urgent local government bailout fig leaf. Reporters learned that the contents of government documents is no longer required to provide housing residents purchase inquiries prove copy number, which means completely cancel the purchase .

So far, Hohhot became the first truly carry the banner of the capital city to save the property. Interpretation of the market, the central or local rescue behavior began to default. The problem now is that after Hohhot, how many follow suit? The property market has been skyrocketing, really can not tolerate decrease? Save the property market is still strong pull to avoid market crash rates?

"Hohhot property close to collapse, has its particularity, in principle, the Ministry of Housing is still required capital city can not be disclosed to relax the restriction, only more secretly executed." Persons who participated in the end of May the Ministry of Housing, Guangdong forum told the "China Times" reporters.

At present, Guangzhou, Shenyang, Wuxi and other cities have relaxed the restriction in the dark, "do not say." According to incomplete statistics, this year, there Hangzhou , Tianjin, Changsha and other cities about 20 settled by relaxing the conditions college housing subsidies, loans and other ways to adjust the fund, directly or indirectly, to implement a "liberal."

Strange to cancel the purchase

Hohhot public bailout process was full of drama.

June 20, Hohhot Real Estate Regulatory Office's official website issued a notice "really good job promoting the implementation of housing security views of the city's real estate market healthy and stable development," the proposed housing residents to purchase goods (including second homes), it does not then asked to provide housing ploidy queries proof.

Although the text of avoiding the "Cancel purchase" words, but no longer for buyers of houses ploidy query, means completely liberalized the purchase, which led to public attention.

5 days later on the 25th, Hohhot Housing Authority said, because of a printing error and the word appears above the emergency recovery "notice", the document also withdrawn from the official website.

In this regard, even a local Planning and Land Committee insiders also said the reporter, the local papers are written carefully worded, printing errors just an excuse, Hohhot bailout may well be "day trip."

"Let the media reported it, the result is too large response, the government not sure on referrals to the Ministry of Housing, Ministry of Housing expressly not allowed, Hohhot can only be recovered by the wrong word go." Person to the bureau a city "China Times" reporter revealed that this is the case, he learned from Hohhot Housing Authority internally.

But unexpectedly, Hohhot in 26 evening, the above "notice" after changes to the re-issue of a word. Hohhot Real Estate Regulatory Office officially published "corrected statement," said the second row in the seventh bracket "with two sets of housing" to "including second-hand housing."

This also means that, after the bailout was considered a restricted area restriction "red line", the first to break from the Hohhot.

"It may be another, and the Ministry of Housing repeated communication, the Ministry of Housing also know Hohhot problems can only default to release it." Above the bureau, told reporters that, Hohhot compile a printing error episode precisely also shows that the local and Central tough game.

"Logically, only changed one word, is not required to recover files, not to mention the second-hand housing is not a big problem, there is not a single original commodity housing means new housing , already includes all the real estate. "Research Director of Marketing Department of Beijing Centaline Dawei analysis said it only shows the mentality of caution and tangled local governments.

But before Hohhot, publicly posting bailout there Tongling city and Shenyang.

Tongling is known as "naked" bailout, but since May 1 after the implementation of the document by the media reports, immediately withdraw from the Internet, after which were not disclosed. Shenyang City Housing Authority, who told reporters, did not release the purchase, "We are not the final say, do not put Shenyang release, to ask the city to ask the center."

Earlier, Fujian "Min ten", and Ningbo, Wuxi, Changsha, Hangzhou and other places came to rescue the market version, but ultimately in charge of government departments denied.

Deep market adjustment

Such persons to participate in the forum, told reporters in Guangdong, wind Ministry of Housing is required in principle to open up the capital city of the purchase. As the capital city, Hohhot how to successfully break through?

"Although part of the capital city of Hohhot, but the size of the population, and not a lot of third-tier cities, and the single industrial structure, typical of the resource-based cities and now release only shows Hohhot oversupply of real estate too." The source said.

Statistics show that the resident population of 300 million people in Hohhot, where urban population of only 200 people.

Centaline According to the official website of Hohhot real estate statistics, from January to May this year, Hohhot new housing units for 3780 sets of transactions, and the current inventory can be sold up to about 120,000 units. At the current rate of destocking, need 10 years. But the last five years, the government granted a total 21.2 million square meters of residential land, as well as potential future supply 100,000 sets.

"Hohhot property market on the verge of collapse, the problem is much more than inventory is too large, but the hands are the wealthy city now no money." Said Zhang Dawei, real estate and economic adjustment in a double superimposed period of sharp contraction in demand Hohhot.

And Haikou, Wuhan, Guiyang and other cities to promote urbanization, buyers settled on behalf of the curve bailout is different, Hohhot although urbanization is also the name of the new flag, but it does not solve the problem settled, it is clear only to stimulate the property market.

Local governments to stimulate the brains behind the property, one reason is that the depth of the real estate has indeed entered a period of adjustment, in addition to the relatively low drop-tier cities, the 234 line of new properties have been secretive kicked upstairs from the front in April, into a Today fanfare drop out. Sudden reversal of the real estate market, the whole industry unexpected.

Central Plains real estate statistics show that from January to May this year, 54 cities housing 968,000 units were sold, representing a reduction rate reached 22.5%.

"It is difficult to sell the land, unsold widespread, local real estate investment growth is more substantial decline, these local governments have made restless." Land Bureau, a city in Zhejiang insiders said, as banks deleveraging, using high leverage over developers Excessive investment in the Yangtze River Delta region has become the hardest hit overstock.

Reporters found that, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai three ground ten thousand real estate non-performing assets are on auction on ebay, but very few bidders. Wenzhou Intermediate People's Court judge told reporters, many of which are listed twice, still nobody cares.

And more "do not say"

It is worth noting that the recent macro wind started to change, the central "micro-stimulus" policy has made it clear, revert to keep the lower limit of 7.5%.

Since June, a number of provinces of Heilongjiang, Hebei, Sichuan, Guangdong, Shanxi, considerable efforts have introduced a steady growth measures; which includes investment shantytowns and infrastructure occupy the position of the head, steady growth to become the most important weight.

But the real estate industry as an economic pillar, and now has become a sensitive word, local public bailout easily aroused resentment, and the bear went over the old heavy infamy, so more local governments to take "do not say" strategy. From "has in fact been discovered much release the purchase, but are outside the official denial" can be discerned.

An industry source told reporters, Shenyang relax after recovery program, into the "underground." Specific operation is to lay greeted with developers, home buyers to buy a house if there really are sincere order to tell each other to relax, but not blatantly posted notice to cancel the purchase at the sales office.

Research Institute of Shanghai E-House Yanghongxu that the market mechanism and new urbanization is the center of major policies, "two-way control" and "guidance" is this year's national housing policy oriented. Similar Hohhot so sluggish property market, prices stop rising city, cancel the purchase, the reason is pretty full.

Not long ago, Feng Jun, chief economist of the Ministry of Housing for the future of local government how to adjust the policy statement said the property market, property market adjustment policies around the overall tone is "always encourage the protection of consumer demand, curb investment demand"; while whether to cancel the purchase, every place should make judgments based on their own situation.

From the supply of data, whether it is the Tianjin Binhai New Area , or Shenyang, Hohhot, property stocks are a common problem is too big, the imbalance between supply and demand. In the industry view, initially as a control rapidly rising short-term rates, administrative emergency measures, the purchase of the property no longer meet the current downstream environment.

But what is puzzling is that, since the decision rests with the place, and indeed a number of cities facing oversupply, falling house prices, why the local government to cancel the purchase and bailout measures so terrified?

"On the one hand from the pressure of public opinion, on the other hand it is still central to secretly resistance." Shenzhen Urban Planning and Land Committee insider told the "China Times" reporter, twice in 2008 and 2011 bailout, are stimulating the demand side from the start, This time, the central hope local governments from the supply side to solve the problem of the imbalance between supply and demand, rather than advance overdraft future needs, but many places still take the old road, so where there are concerns.

A source close to the Ministry of Housing, said: "The current ' hidden rules 'yes, many still can not relax the restriction or imposing public bailout, local government secretly executed without saying all right. "


But after Hohhot will change? Dawei that the purchase of the policy may be in addition to the first-tier cities and over 10 million population of the city still exists, the other cities are likely to gradually be canceled more than 30 cities are expected to limit the options may be canceled during the year.

"Dare to be saved, the public does not open, are too subtle." Above the Shenzhen Land Planning Committee who then told reporters that now measures more than one place, and let the purchase of the bailout, and still take the old road, which is the central " adjusting structure, promoting transformation "direction does not match, so the place inevitably indecisive, as long as central to adhere to this line, it will not allow local governments free to relax the restriction.

The estate itself is indeed at a crossroads. Real estate, "eldest brother" Wang recently audible again: There is not enough to completely adjust the extent, the adjustment period may last for 2-4 years. If the market is not adjusted, the real estate market bubble could really be broken, like Japan's that will be very bad.

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