2014-03-18

U.S. Return on Debt vs China

This chart shows the change in GDP divided by the change in total debt in the U.S. economy. (For every dollar of debt borrowed in Q4 of 2013, the economy added $0.18 in GDP). It spikes above 3 in 2009 due to disinflation in that year, I cut it off so as not to distort the chart.


For comparison sake, the change in nominal Chinese GDP in 2013 divided by the total flow of TSF amounts to a return of 0.28 for every yuan of debt created.That is only in the ballpark of the 1990s U.S. economy. That number implies the Chinese economy is growing much more slowly than reported in government statistics. Another explanation is that the credit starved portion of the economy is indeed growing quickly, but the debt created is very poorly allocated. Either way, it spells trouble for the credit bubble.

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