2012-07-12

Liu Junluo: PBOC will hike rates later this year, in the middle of the Great Depression, regional war coming to Asia

Liu Junluo's latest blog post argues that the central bank is helping the stock market decline and supporting the trade surplus, in order to reduce consumption and attract deposits into the banking system, with the ultimate goal of covering up bad debts.

He argues that the central bank should have allowed inflation to accelerate in 2011, but instead has created a man-made deflationary crisis. He says that in 2012Q4 or 2013Q1, the PBOC will hike interest rates. He doesn't explain why, but he expects the Great Depression will again rear its head during this time. Why would a country hike rates during a depression? Either to attract capital into the banking system or to defend the currency, or both.

中国央行在2012年四季度~2013年一季度将进入加息周期

Google Translate version (with very slight edits, mostly still terrible Google Translation): China's central bank will enter a rising rate cycle in the fourth quarter of 2012 to 2013 first quarter
Mr. Guo Shuqing task is completed, not a large number of Chinese stock market participants in the 2400 points along the zoom, the Chinese stock market fell to 2000 points and 1800 points, a relatively large rebound. Chinese stock market traders zoom lever, in the future, it will easily in the Chinese stock market .


The two previous blog, has written very clearly. December 16, 2011 blog "2012 China's macro-policy will continue to hope that the large-scale stock market fell and the new book announcement " is written to the - now, more and more intense as the European debt crisis of self-direction" China's macroeconomic policy is nothing more than the need to rely on the Chinese stock market in the 2012 to continue the large-scale fell to solve the Chinese central bank's bad debt exposure. In 2012, China's economy faces an "election year", is to continue to manufacture hard big crash of the Chinese stock market to reduce the Chinese residents' consumption of local products and foreign products, the acceleration pushed up China's household savings rate, to reach out to expand the trade surplus, good this astronomical figure of bad debts hidden good to the next term, or let the bad debt exposure are far behind even the Empress, and then handed over to the new term? So, you do not see Jinglian, Li Yining, and the Chinese central bank talk and action, you are still a living economy "idiot".


A result, the 2012 , China's trade surplus is 31.7 billion U.S. dollars, far more than expected. 2012 1 to 2 months, the trade deficit to 2012 years, until March rebound. Chinese investors are China's trade surplus only, it is important contributors. In this way, you should like the film in the cinema to see an intrigue to see our Mr. Guo Shuqing do our best to show.


So, 2012 , I made ​​Sina microblogging a microblogging - China's central bank cut interest rates, is it good? Chinese people today, is certainly to be every day of the positive destroyed, has always been to eat people do not spit out the bones "feel good" a person to grasp the logic of economics and the social division of labor is very important. Chinese stocks will make many people unknowingly ruin, or broken up the fate. The ignorance is so sad, perhaps, so far the evolution of society is the need for most people, to destroy the financial markets. Otherwise, there is no way to explain! Why would anyone buy a stock, buy a house. Liu Jun Luo, July 5, 2012, Thursday.


The question now is, in mid-2011, I expected China's central bank by the end of 2011 or start of 2012 to urgently loosen monetary policy. Today, China's central bank is not only done, but haphazardly to do.


So, there should be a problem - the Americans will not let the Chinese central bank raise rates in the 2012 fourth quarter ~ 2013 in the first quarter?


Now, the Chinese central bank's monetary easing will continue, however, is coming to an end.


The world economy has entered the Great Depression; we are living in the middle of the Great Depression; the Great Depression of the tail of - a large number of ​​people go bankrupt; a large number of ​​people jumping off buildings; a large number of ​​people are unemployed and the danger of regional wars in Asia.


2010 to 2011 , I criticized the Chinese central bank's monetary policy is a serious strategic error, because the real problem of the Chinese economy is a long-term catastrophic deflation. However, the 2010 to 2011 the Chinese central bank's monetary policy is strong anti-inflationary, China's central bank monetary policy is actually artificially serious strengthen China's economic deflation. Therefore, China's central bank will soon have to choose the strength to raise interest rates to solve the problem they have committed a serious strategic error. We have entered the economic world incurable. 2013 years, the most the threat of human fear - Asia regional outbreak of war.


The blog is written, because the economic situation all step by step into the run. I do economic research, economic trends are very difficult to change, So do not waste time writing repetitive words. How to operate their own money, as I have already made it clear. Able to escape this hell on earth "economic catastrophe, that is, you good luck thing.

Liu Jun Luo
2012

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