2012-05-04

Ruling party loses local elections in UK; UKIP vote share up big

Local elections in the UK dealt a blow to the ruling Tories and swung support back Labour, but the real winner is the UKIP, which managed to increase its vote share more than 50%. UKIP only gained one seat, but the UK uses the first-past-post system (also used in the U.S. and other former British colonies) where the largest vote total wins the seat. In this system, third parties either remain small (or regional) or they win big, but when they win they displace one of the other parties. Therefore, the main thing to watch is the percentage gain and The Telegraph has this forecast:
Latest forecast: Lab 39%, Tories 31%, Lib Dem 16%. Turnout 30%
That puts UKIP right on the heels of the Lib Dems.
Telegraph election coverage
Ukip enjoys record local election results
The UK Independence party, which has historically put in a lacklustre performance in local elections, has been averaging 13% of the vote in the seats it contested – five points higher than a year ago – making 2012 a record year for Nigel Farage's Eurosceptics.

Although it has so far failed to convert that share of the vote into a significant gain in seats, Ukip appears to have done more than enough to ruffle Tory feathers and put pressure on an already creaking coalition.

Gary Streeter, Conservative MP for Devon South West, lost no time in seizing on the defections as evidence of why David Cameron needs to reassert his party's traditional values. "We need to work out a strategy, certainly in the West Country, for dealing with the issue of traditional voters shuffling off and voting Ukip because they don't think our leadership is Conservative enough," he told the BBC.

Digger deeper into social mood, the right is clearly the side enjoying the electoral volatility. While the Tories lost overall, UKIP is rising the the left-wing party, Lib Dems, is falling.
Local elections: Liberal Democrats 'might not be able to fight 2015 election as independent force'

UKIP is nowhere near as far right as continental parties, but they are to the right of the Tories. A big reason for their gain is social mood: the ruling party's own supporters leave it for a third party because they are so dissatisfied. Of course, that dissatisfaction is borne of negative social mood, which is also responsible for the bad economy. In order for a third party to win, it needs to break this cycle. For example, if Labour was in power, then Lib Dems would have done better, UKIP worse, and power would shift to the Tories. When and if a break occurs during particularly negative social mood, the rising party will win. I believe that right-wing politics is ascendant and UKIP has a very mild form of nationalism: it opposes the EU, but it doesn't take it as far as the continental right-wing parties. This makes it more palatable to a wider swath of voters and it should continue to see a general rising trend over the course of the next several elections. My hunch is that UKIP will not emerge as an independent party, but that the Tories will co-opt their major issues and win a Thatcher-style mandate later in the decade.

Local elections 2012: results map
London Mayor election and local election results 2012: live
UKIP's Nigel Farage hails 'steady progress' in local elections

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