Pacific naval developments

China Testing Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile (ASBM); U.S. Preparing Accordingly

Open source data offer significant evidence that China has prioritized and is proceeding rapidly with anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM) development. A variety of Chinese sources have stated a desire to demonstrate the ability to threaten carrier strike groups (CSGs). There are a number of indications that China may have reached the point that it is able to conduct some fairly sophisticated ASBM tests. While system components may be tested separately, and on the ground in many cases, a fully integrated flight test is likely to be necessary to give the PLA confidence in approving full-scale production and deploying ASBMs in a full operational state. At some point, such tests would be a necessary step to reach the next level in ASBM development–and to attempt to use the ASBM as a deterrent.

Most recently, based on sophisticated organizational analysis, Mark Stokes and Tiffany Ma suggest that the Second Artillery may be constructing ASBM missile brigade facilities in Guangdong Province:

China doesn't have to defeat the U.S. militarily, it only needs a credible threat to deter the U.S. navy from acting.