2010-05-18

Liu Junluo: We have already entered the economic depression

This is a short post from Liu Junluo, he's been busy writing a book. I'm not sure how much this squares with Prechter and the other deflationists, but this is close to my own view, that first we have deflation and then inflation. Marc Faber has been more inflationist in his arguments, but he has said he holds that position because if the market or economy have a severe decline, the response will be money printing.

世界已快进入了真正的大萧条期
本人今年3月14日在北京讲课时,是谈今年底美元指数会站在85,年内很可能上冲90,当时也指出这是非常非常保守的估算。现在,故事已进入秦国统一战争的最后时刻,这个时刻对秦国是万马平川、轻松自如。所以,美元是不是会走出让全世界人与全体中国人都一辈子也看不懂的宏大行情呢!请你设想一下,当秦国最后统一六国的那个时刻,是怎么样的暴风骤雨。黄金现在与美元同步上涨,是世界上有几个人用黄金创新高来鼓励全体中国人相信“通货膨胀”快来了,是掩盖美元即将爆发的真正的壮观行情。这个时代是伟大与贫富严重分化的时代。今天的保存,才会有明天的生长。相信“通货膨胀”的中国人都快要死了。本人再说一遍,中国是先“恶性通货紧缩”,再“恶性通货膨胀”,美国人现在要把中国市场防“通货膨胀”的人,先用“通货紧缩”吊死,而后再使中国爆发“通货膨胀”。


My synopsis: Liu Junluo says that at a March 14 lecture in Beijing, he said the U.S. Dollar Index would be at 85 by the end of the year, maybe 90, but this was his conservative estimate. He says the U.S. dollar is about to make its greatest move in our lifetimes. He compares the current situation to that of state of Qin, which conquered the other six states to unify China in the Warring States period, that this was a very violent period. He says that gold and the U.S. dollar rising together is seen as a sign of coming inflation by most people, but that in fact it conceals the U.S. dollar's spectacular move. He says that today's savings are tomorrow's growth and that those Chinese who believe in inflation will soon want to die. He reiterate that first their will be horrible deflation, and that will be followed by hyperinflation.

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